Trader Development Desk Weekly

A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran triggered a sharp risk-on move across global markets.

Next week shifts focus to the start of Q1 earnings season, led by major banks, alongside key inflation reads from Canada and the UK, US retail sales, and a broad set of flash PMIs for global activity

Markets have opened the new quarter with a sharp short-term bullish tilt, driven by ceasefire developments and de-escalation hopes in the Middle East. While risk assets have rebounded strongly, the outlook remains highly headline-dependent, with traders needing to stay flexible and avoid rigid bias as second-round effects or renewed tensions could quickly shift the narrative.

Next week is lighter on headline macro than the prior payrolls stretch, but it carries real tradable weight: banks kick off Q1 earnings season on Monday/Tuesday while PPI delivers the first major inflation read of the month. Existing home sales, Empire State manufacturing, and jobless claims add context on housing and labor, with Fed speakers (Miran and Barkin) framing the rate path. The calendar rewards traders who sequence earnings reactions against the inflation tape and watch whether financials leadership holds or hands the baton to tech/discretionary names later in the week.

Markets are beginning the new quarter on firmer footing, with a modest improvement in sentiment helping risk assets stabilise. Dan notes that while recent price action has turned more constructive, much of the direction still hinges on macro developments — particularly geopolitical headlines — rather than purely technical structure.

Next week is less about one blockbuster print and more about whether inflation and policy signals reinforce each other from start to finish. Monday opens with ISM Services, Tuesday adds only a light U.S. macro handoff but brings Levi Strauss and Greenbrier after the close, Wednesday pairs the RBNZ decision with FOMC minutes, Thursday is the real U.S. pressure point with Core PCE, final GDP, claims, income, and spending, and Friday finishes with U.S. CPI plus Canada jobs. Around that, Delta, RPM, Constellation Brands, and PriceSmart offer practical reads on consumer demand, transport volume, pricing power, and staples/discretionary resilience.

Markets are shifting into a new bearish regime — equities are pressing key lows, the dollar remains strong, and while oil holds up on geopolitical support, the broader message is clear: the easy, trend-following playbook of recent years no longer applies.

Next week is not about broad macro storytelling; it is about whether the labor-and-demand tape can hold together once Powell speaks and payrolls week starts to bite. Monday’s Powell appearance can reset front-end rate expectations, Tuesday pairs Canada GDP with U.S. JOLTS, Wednesday is the real pressure point with ADP, retail sales, and ISM manufacturing, Thursday gives the final claims check, and Friday’s payrolls report decides whether the market carries growth exposure into the new month. Around that, Nike, FactSet, PVH, Conagra, RH, and Acuity give practical reads on consumer demand, enterprise spend, and discretionary risk appetite.

Next week is where the market has to live with what it heard from the Fed. The first broad activity check arrives Tuesday with S&P Global’s flash PMIs, then Thursday’s weekly claims and Friday’s final Michigan sentiment read test whether softer inflation is translating into durable confidence. Around that, KB Home, GameStop, Chewy, and Paychex add housing, consumer, payroll, and risk-appetite color, while several February Census releases are still delayed, TBD, or suspended after the federal funding lapse.

The week’s key zones across index futures and commodities — mapped into major pivots and decision areas to help you track where moves are more likely to stall, rotate, or extend.

Next week belongs to the Fed. Wednesday opens with a delayed PPI release and closes with the March FOMC decision, fresh SEP dots, and Powell’s press conference. Around that core, industrial production lands Monday, pending home sales Tuesday, and Micron, Accenture, and FedEx give equities their own reality checks. One added wrinkle: several Census releases, including retail sales and housing starts, are still marked TBD after the federal funding lapse, which means the market may have less clean macro guidance than usual outside the Fed window.

Trader Development Desk

Next week is simple on paper and violent in practice: Wednesday’s CPI is the only print that matters until it isn’t — because Friday delivers GDP (Second Estimate) and the PCE stack in the same 8:30am window, with JOLTS + Michigan sentiment right behind it. On the single-stock side, Oracle headlines Tuesday night and Adobe follows Thursday after the close. The question: does the inflation impulse keep the front end pinned, or does the data give duration room to breathe?

The week’s key zones across index futures, metals, and FX— mapped into major pivots and decision areas to help you track where moves are more likely to stall, rotate, or extend.

First week of March brings the tape back to its usual anchors: ISM Manufacturing Monday, a mid-week stack (ADP + ISM Services + Beige Book), and Friday payrolls as the closer. On the single-stock side, Broadcom reports Wednesday (post-close), Costco follows Thursday afternoon, and Berkshire drops its annual report + earnings Saturday morning. The week’s question is simple: do rates validate risk-on, or force discipline back into positioning?

The week’s key zones across index futures, metals, FX, and DAX — mapped into major pivots and decision areas to help you track where moves are more likely to stall, rotate, or extend.

A lighter week on paper, but higher calendar risk in practice: confidence + housing prices Tuesday, a labor pulse Thursday, and multiple Census releases still marked TBD. With GDP and PCE pushed into March, we focus on the one driver that matters most next week — how rates behave when the usual macro anchors aren’t on the tape.

The week’s key zones across index futures, metals, FX, and DAX — mapped into major pivots and decision areas to help you track where moves are more likely to stall, rotate, or extend.

A back-loaded week: FOMC minutes Wednesday, GDP + PCE Friday. We map the key releases (housing, durables, trade) and the one question that decides whether markets reprice the rate path.

The week’s key zones across index futures, metals, FX and DAX — mapped into major pivots and decision areas to help you track where moves are more likely to stall, rotate, or extend.